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Overanalyze, wearing owner Mike Repole's blue and orange silks, won the Nov. 24 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct in his last start. NYRA/Coglianese photo
Churchill Downs has changed the method in which horses earn their way into the Kentucky Derby if more than 20 are entered for next May 4’s race, abandoning preference based on graded-stakes earnings in favor of a tiered points system involving 36 races. The designated races for the next four weekends offer a 50-20-10-5 scale for the top four finishers. Churchill has estimated that 40 points should comfortably get a horse into the May 4 Derby, with 30 points putting a horse on the bubble.
Point leaders (only Triple Crown-nominated horses still racing listed): 51 – Ive Struck a Nerve; 50 – Orb; 24 – Shanghai Bobby, Goldencents; 20 – Code West; 16 – Oxbow; 11 – Speak Logistics; 10 – Itsmyluckyday, Overanalyze, Uncaptured, Den’s Legacy, Power Broker, Super Ninety Nine, Will Take Charge, Falling Sky, Flashback, Revolutionary, Palace Malice.
Saturday’s point race: $400,000 Gotham Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct Racetrack in Ozone Park, N.Y.; 1 1/16 miles over the inner track; post time 5:02 p.m. ET; TVG, HRTV.
Gotham Stakes favorite Overanalyze makes his first start since winning the Nov. 24 Remsen at 1 1/8 miles, earning a 104 BRIS speed figure that easily heads this field. He’s won three of five starts, including the Grade II Futurity at Belmont; has won on the lead, stalking and closing. But he’ll have to overcome post 12 and 3-for-3 Vyjack.
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Chief competition: Vyjack has raced only at Aqueduct, winning two sprints over the main track and the Grade II Jerome on Jan. 5 over the inner track. Trainer Rudy Rodriguez opted to skip the Feb. 2 Withers Stakes with the son of Into Mischief.
Vyjack's Jerome was the biggest training victory to date for former jockey Rudy Rodriguez. NYRA/Coglianese photo
The Jerome was Rodriguez’s biggest victory since he switched from riding to training in 2010. “I’m still dreaming,” he said. “It’s a very good feeling. I’m very lucky to have him. The competition is going to get tougher, so he’ll have to keep stepping up.”
Power in numbers: Kiaran McLaughlin, a Lexing
Escapefromreality, who just got nipped by Revolutionary in the Withers, comes back in Saturday's Gotham. NYRA/Adam Coglianese photo
ton product, entered three horses that won maiden races in their last start. Elnaawi, who won a mile race by four lengths Jan. 12 at Aqueduct in his second start, is a son of 2007 Derby winner Street Sense and out of Pilfer, making him a half-brother to Woodward and Cigar Mile winner To Honor and Serve. Elnaawi also will race on anti-bleeding medication for the first time.
McLaughlin’s other entrants are the Darley-owned coupled entry of Transparent and Now and Then, though one might go instead in an allowance race.
“They’re all colts who we think can be graded winners,” McLaughlin said. “Elnaawi won easily last time out. It’s a big step up, but we think he’s a nice horse. It would be nice to get points and have a chance to run in the Derby. With the other two, we’re not sure what we’re going to do. But, bottom line, they’re all talented colts with a future.”
Value play: 6-1 Escapefromreality has form similar to Vyjak: two good sprints at Aqueduct (albeit Escapefromreality’s were against New York-breds) and a strong effort in his stakes and two-turn debut (albeit he lost the Withers by a neck to the highly-regarded Pletcher-trained Revolutionary, who isn’t running in the Gotham).
“It was a shame he got caught at the wire,” said owner Anthony J. Bonomo. “But since that race he’s just been getting better and better, training-wise.”
Derby production: You could win a bar bet with this, but Secretariat in 1973 is the only Derby winner to come out of the race in its 60 runnings. None of the eight Gotham runners to make the Derby the last 10 years hit the board.
In non-points races: Shippers from California (the Rick Pitino-owned Avare), Florida (Star Contender), Louisiana (General Election), New York (Giant Finish) and Oaklawn (For Greater Glory) make for an interesting running of Saturday’s $75,000 John Battaglia Memorial at Turfway, the final local prep for the $550,000 Horseshoe Casino Cincinnati Spiral Stakes. Among those to beat is Bye Bye Bernie, who came from Florida to finish a troubled fourth in the Turfway Park Prevue and second in the 96 Rocks. Those two races were won by Mac the Man, who is training up to the Spiral.
Get Happy Mister, the Colorado-born colt who has won his four starts by a combined 31 1/4 lengths, tackles Titletown Five in Oaklawn’s $60,000 Gazebo at Oaklawn. Titletown Five, whose owners include Green Bay football greats Paul Hornung and Willie Davis, makes his first start since suffering a knee chip in taking an Oct. 28 Churchill maiden race by nine lengths…
Departing, scratched from last week’s Risen Star, runs in Saturday night’s $50,000 Texas Heritage at Sam Houston as a possible prep for the Louisiana Derby…. Gulfstream’s $150,000 Palm Beach on turf Sunday could produce horses for the upcoming Polytrack preps at Turfway and Keeneland. The field of 11 includes Kentucky Jockey Club third-place finisher Dewey Square, making his first start since being flattened in the Holy Bull. Saturday’s 1 1/8-mile dirt allowance at Gulfstream also could launch horses to a points prep.
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